EIA February 2026 Outlook – Key Highlights

1) Natural Gas Prices

Henry Hub rises from just under $3.00/MMBtu to about $4.10/MMBtu (Jan 2026). This is around $0.50/MMBtu lower than last month’s outlook, reflecting higher U.S. production and greater storage levels.

2) Global Oil Prices

Brent crude averages $62/b in 4Q25 and $52/b in 2026 as inventories build, creating downward pressure on prices through next year.

3) Global Oil Production

• Non-OPEC+: +2.0 million b/d in 2025; +0.7 million b/d in 2026.
• OPEC+: +0.6 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026 as production cuts are unwound.
• OPEC+ remains below official targets, slowing inventory builds and limiting further price drops.

4) U.S. Crude Oil Production

U.S. crude hit a record 13.6 million b/d in July 2025. Production now expected to average 13.5 million b/d in both 2025 and 2026 (up 0.2 million b/d from last month), driven by faster Gulf of Mexico ramp-ups despite weaker prices.

5) LNG Export Capacity

U.S. adds about 5 Bcf/d in export capacity in 2025–2026 as Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3 come online. Exports reach 14.7 Bcf/d (2025) and 16.3 Bcf/d (2026), up from 11.9 Bcf/d (2024).

6) Coal Consumption

• +15% in 1H25 vs. 1H24 (higher power demand & gas prices).
• +4% in 2H25 vs. 2H24.
• –3% in 2026 as solar generation displaces coal-fired output.

7) Electricity Generation

Total U.S. generation grows +2.3% in 2025 and +3.0% in 2026, led by data center and industrial demand. Solar remains the fastest-growing source of new capacity.