Natural Gas Storage and Prices
Natural gas inventories are expected to remain above the five-year average (2019–2023) throughout the winter heating season, ending March 2025 at 1,920 billion cubic feet (Bcf), which is 2% above the five-year average. The U.S. Henry Hub spot price is forecasted to increase from just over $2.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in November to about $3.00/MMBtu for the remainder of the winter.
Electricity Consumption
U.S. electricity sales are expected to grow by 2% this winter compared to last winter, with residential electricity sales increasing by 3% due to colder weather and 6% more heating degree days. Although the season began with warm weather in November, overall winter temperatures are anticipated to be colder than last year.
Global Oil Production Oil production is expected to grow by 1.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025. Nearly 90% of this growth will come from non-OPEC countries, as OPEC+ has announced a delay in production increases until April 2025, originally planned for January 2025.
Oil Prices
The Brent crude oil spot price is forecasted to remain stable at an average of $74 per barrel in 2025, reflecting a balanced oil market on an annual basis.
U.S. Crude Oil Net Imports
Net imports of crude oil in the United States are projected to decline by over 20% to 1.9 million b/d in 2025, the lowest level since 1971. This reduction is attributed to increasing U.S. crude oil production and lower refinery runs.